In April 2025, Ukraine exported 4.1 million tonnes of agricultural products, marking a 23.4% decrease compared to the previous month, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB).
"This downward trend in exports is typical for this time of year. The vast majority of the harvest has already been exported, leaving only limited volumes for further shipments," analysts explained.
Experts noted that nearly all categories of agricultural products saw a decline in export volumes in April 2025. The sole exception was vegetable oils, whose export volumes continued to grow. This was attributed to an unusual situation in the Ukrainian sunflower oil market, where production volumes have been stretched over time this year.
According to UCAB, vegetable oils dominated the export structure in April, with 525,800 tonnes shipped abroad – 6% more than in March. Sunflower oil accounted for 91% of these exports, while soybean oil made up the remaining 9%.
Grain exports dropped by 33% to 2.4 million tonnes, with corn comprising 65% of the total, wheat 32%, and barley 2%. Oilseed exports decreased by 3% to 421,200 tonnes, including soybeans (78%), rapeseed (20%), and flaxseed (1%). Exports of oilseed meal fell by 14% to 423,000 tonnes, of which sunflower meal represented 73% and soybean meal 27%. Exports of other agri-industrial products declined by 2% to 357,000 tonnes.
According to Mr. Fan Gan of ZJGG, the Chinese high oleic sunflower oil (HSFO) industry is experiencing a downturn. Since January 2025, HSFO imports into China have dropped sharply, contrasting with previous periods when the country regularly imported at least 20,000 tons per month. The main reason is that some unscrupulous peanut oil producers were mixing HSFO to reduce production costs.
In October 2024, the price of HSFO increased and the price difference between it and peanut oil decreased. Blending is currently not economically feasible. Despite this, the Chinese government announced strict measures against illegal schemes, providing penalties of up to five years in prison for serious violations.
As a result, the HSFO market in China has come to a standstill, except for a small amount of steady demand. Mr. Fan believes this drop in demand is not temporary but a deep, structural shift that will have long-term effects on the industry.
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Driven by growing demand for refined sunflower-seed or safflower oil, the Australian market is predicted to see continuous growth. Forecasts suggest a CAGR of +2.6% in volume and +3.2% in value from 2024 to 2035, resulting in significant expansion by the end of the period.
A heated debate is unfolding in the U.S. over plant-based oils, particularly sunflower and canola, due to the “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) initiative led by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. He is urging Americans to abandon the so-called “Hateful Eight”—oils derived from sunflower, canola, soybean, corn, cottonseed, grapeseed, rice bran, and safflower—in favor of beef tallow.
The agricultural community has raised concerns about these claims. The executive director of the U.S. Sunflower Association addressed Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, highlighting misinformation about seed oils and their beneficial properties. “We hope you will be a strong advocate for our industry,” he stated.
Rollins assured her support for all farmers, including those in the oilseed sector. “I am committed to being an active advocate for agriculture,” she declared.
Meanwhile, the American Heart Institute backs plant-based oils, emphasizing their health benefits due to low saturated fat content, unlike beef tallow, which Kennedy promotes as an alternative. Canola oil, in particular, is noted for its low saturated fat levels, making it a staple for health-conscious consumers.
This controversy could impact the U.S. agricultural sector, as sunflower and canola oils are key components of the food industry. The outcome will depend on ongoing dialogue between farmers, the government, and the public.
U.S. farmers plan to significantly expand sunflower plantings in 2025, with total intended acreage reaching 1.07 million — a 49% increase compared to last year’s record-low levels, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The largest growth is expected in North Dakota, where oil-type sunflower acreage is set to rise by 62% to 960,500 acres. In contrast, non-oil sunflower plantings are projected to decrease by 12%.
This expansion is largely driven by tight seed inventories. As of March 1, total sunflower seed stocks stood at 564 million pounds, down 52% year-on-year. Of this, 426 million pounds were oil-type seeds — a 59% drop from the previous year. Non-oil stocks, however, increased 7% to 138 million pounds, which may explain the lower enthusiasm for planting this variety.
Despite the projected increase in acreage, crushers and confection processors continue to offer contracts for the 2025 crop. New-crop prices remain competitive with other specialty oilseeds, and farmers can benefit from a 2% price bonus for every 1% of oil content above 40%, which could significantly boost returns.
Sunflowers remain a strong option for late-season planting, with final insurance planting dates extending into mid-to-late June depending on the state and county. For example, in North Dakota, the insurance cutoff is June 10 or 15, and the actual last planting date may extend 20–25 days beyond that. Farmers can find planting deadlines and buyer contacts at the National Sunflower Association website, sunflowernsa.com.
July palm oil futures on the Bursa exchange in Malaysia fell 2.37% yesterday to 3,961 ringgit/t or $908.5/t amid falling oil and vegetable oil prices in China, where the Dalian exchange’s soybean oil contract fell 1.54% and the SPO1 palm oil contract fell 2.15%.
Malaysian palm oil exports continue to slow, even as production increases, leading analysts to expect inventories to rise by the end of April. According to surveyors, exports of the oil rose 13.8-14.8% between April 1 and 25 compared to the same period in March.
July Brent crude futures fell 1.1% yesterday to $64.9/barrel (-14.8% month-on-month) under pressure from the still-inconclusive talks between the US and China, which are holding back global economic growth and fuel demand.
July soybean oil futures in Chicago rose another 1.4% yesterday to the highest level since late 2023 at $1,112/t (+4.5% for the week, +11% for the month) on speculative expectations of increased processing in the new season. But the soybean oil market is heavily overbought, so a successful completion of planting or news about biodiesel production plans in the US could cause quotes to collapse sharply.
In Ukraine, export prices for sunflower oil delivered to Black Sea ports remain at $1,125-1,135/t amid limited supply. But demand is declining as oil from Argentina enters the market, with bid prices falling on forecasts of a record sunflower harvest.
The Indian government plans to revive sunflower cultivation across multiple states to reduce edible oil import dependence. Under the national mission on edible oils, sunflower will be promoted as a summer crop, with processing facilities and financial incentives aimed at boosting production and reducing reliance on imports.
India's AWL Agri Business, previously known as Adani Wilmar, reported a nearly 22 per cent rise in fourth-quarter profit on Monday, benefiting from higher demand in its core edible oils segment.
consumer goods company, which makes the Fortune brand of cooking oil, reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 1.9 billion Indian ($22.36 million) for the quarter ended March 31, compared with Rs 1.56 billion a year ago.
Revenue from its core edible oils segment - which accounted for more than 81 per cent of total revenue - jumped 45 per cent during the quarter, driven by increased demand for sunflower and mustard oils.