In recent years, there has been an active redistribution of the global sunflower oil market - the Black Sea region is losing positions due to reduced production and logistical problems, while Argentina is opening new sales markets and increasing supplies to old ones.
According to USDA, Argentina's share in global sunflower oil exports has grown from 7% in 2016/17 MY to 10% in 2024/25 MY, and in 2026/27 MY it may reach 13%. For comparison, the shares of Ukraine and the Russian Federation are 33% and 31%, respectively. So Argentina is significantly increasing competition with these countries.
This was especially evident in the Indian market, the world's largest importer of sunflower oil. Ten years ago, Ukraine was almost the only supplier of sunflower oil to the country. However, after the start of a full-scale invasion, the Russian Federation pushed Ukraine out of the Indian market, increasing its sunflower oil supplies from 451 thousand tons in 2021/22 MY to 1.66 million tons in 2023/24 MY.
At the same time, Argentina also increased its exports of sunflower oil to India, increasing supplies from 380 thousand tons in 2021/22 MY to 415 thousand tons in 2022/23 MY and 515 thousand tons in 2023/24 MY.
During September-April 2025/26 MY, Argentina has already exported a record 530 thousand tons of sunflower oil to India, for the first time in history ahead of Ukraine in this direction, which supplied only 344 thousand tons.
The active increase in exports of sunflower and its processed products from Argentina was contributed by production problems in the Black Sea region, Argentina's tax policy, and changing agro-climatic conditions.
As a result of the war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, the supply of sunflower oil on the world market decreased sharply, and importers began to diversify supplies, which allowed Argentina to increase its market share.
Domestic tax policy also played a significant role. In the 1990s, duties on the sunflower complex were minimal, which stimulated processing. After 2002, they increased sharply, reaching 37-39% at some point, as a result of which the area under sunflower decreased by 45% in favor of soybeans. After 2015, duties decreased slightly, and during 2024-2025 the new authorities lowered them from 7% to 4.5% on sunflower and to 4% on oil, although duties on the soybean complex reach 22%, as a result of which the difference in the margin between the processing of soybeans and sunflowers is $ 150-200 / t.
According to the preliminary estimate of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in 2026/27 MY, world oil production is expected to reach 244.1 million tons, which is approximately 6.8 million tons more than in the current season. This proposal will fully satisfy the forecasted demand of 237.6 million tons.
Palm oil will remain the most important vegetable oil in the world both in terms of production and consumption. World production will reach a record level of 81.4 million tons. This is for 90 thousand tons more than in 2025/26. Indonesia will remain the largest producer with 47.5 million tons, followed by Malaysia with 19.6 million tons and Thailand with 3.7 million tons.
Soybean oil production will also increase in the next fiscal year. The most significant growth of 2.9 million tons to 74.7 million tons is expected. China still remains the largest processor of soybeans and the main producer of soybean oil with a production volume of 21.4 million tons, followed by the United States with slightly more than 14.8 million tons.
It is expected that the production of rapeseed oil in the 2026/27 season will reach 37.2 million tons, which is 2.7 million tons more than in the current season. Production of sunflower oil, according to forecasts, will increase by approximately 2.6 million tons to 23.5 million tons, mainly due to increased production in Ukraine, Russia, and EU countries.
According to estimates, 5% to 10% of the world production of vegetable oils can be processed in the form of waste oil. Thus, the total volume of oil suitable for processing in the world is only about 12-24 million tons.
The Turkish civilian ship Viva, crewed by 11 Turkish citizens and bound for Egypt, was struck in Ukraine's exclusive economic zone with no casualties reported.
Russian forces launched a drone strike on a Turkish civilian vessel in the Black Sea on December 13, hitting a ship loaded with sunflower oil and bound for Egypt. Ukraine’s navy confirmed the attack on the vessel Viva, which was transiting through Ukraine’s exclusive economic zone when it was struck.
No injuries were reported among the 11 Turkish crew members aboard. The ship continued its journey.
The attack on the Viva did not occur in isolation. It coincided with a broader wave of Russian strikes targeting Ukrainian ports, particularly in the Odesa region, where at least three Turkish-owned vessels sustained damage. Geolocated footage from those port sites confirmed visible fires and structural damage to the affected ships.
Ukraine condemned the strike, framing it as evidence that Russia has no genuine interest in de-escalation and little regard for the safety of civilian maritime operations. Russia, for its part, has not publicly acknowledged or commented on the drone attack against the Viva.
The Black Sea is one of the world’s critical corridors for grain and oil shipments, connecting major agricultural exporters like Ukraine to global markets. Ukraine is the world’s largest exporter of sunflower oil, and disruptions to its transport have ripple effects on food prices globally.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, the Black Sea has been transformed from a busy commercial thoroughfare into a contested military theater. The UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative, which temporarily facilitated safe passage for grain exports, collapsed in mid-2023 when Russia withdrew. Since then, Ukraine has established its own maritime corridor.
For Turkey specifically, the situation is...
The world food price gauge – the FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) – climbed for the third consecutive month in April mainly due to rising vegetable oil prices, the United Nations’ (UN) Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) announced.
The world food price gauge – the FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) – climbed for the third consecutive month in April mainly due to rising vegetable oil prices, the United Nations’ (UN) Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) announced.
Against a backdrop of elevated energy costs and disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East, the index - which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of the most globally traded food commodities - averaged 130.7 points in April, up 1.6% from its revised March level and 2% higher than the previous year, the FAO said on 8 May.
“Despite the disruptions linked to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, global agrifood systems continue to show resilience. Cereal prices have increased only moderately so far, supported by relatively strong stocks and adequate supplies from previous seasons,” said FAO chief economist Máximo Torero.
“Vegetable oils, however, are experiencing stronger price increases, driven largely by higher crude oil prices, which are increasing demand for biofuels and putting additional pressure on vegetable oil markets.”
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 5.9% from March, reaching an average of 193.9 points – its highest level since July 2022 – driven mainly by higher prices of palm, soyabean, sunflower and rapeseed oils.
International palm oil prices rose for the fifth consecutive month in April, underpinned by expectations of rising demand from the biofuel sector, policy incentives in major oil-producing producing countries and higher crude oil prices. Additional upward pressure stemmed from concerns over lower production in Southeast Asia, the FAO said.
The FAO’s vegetable oil price index illustrates the changes in international prices of the 10 most important vegetable oils in world trade, weighted according to their export shares.
In Ukraine, demand for sunflower remains quite high, which supports purchase prices, but the increase in raw material prices against the background of stable prices for sunflower oil reduces processing margins, so some plants are stopping work in anticipation of the rapeseed processing season.
During the past week, purchase prices for sunflower (with 50% oil content) in Ukraine remained at the level of 31,300-33,500 UAH/t or 630-660 $/t excluding VAT, however, a strange situation arose when processors who had not formed sunflower stocks continued to raise purchase prices, while others reduced prices, having sufficient stocks before the start of rapeseed processing. For large batches of sunflower, processors paid even 34,000 UAH/t with delivery to the plant, but noted that in order to form stocks for the new season, it is necessary to purchase a small amount of raw materials.
Last week, Russian sunflower oil prices fell by $10/t to $1,290/t FOB as Russian sellers try to compete with Argentine oil, which has risen by $10-20/t to $1,340-1,380/t FOB amid increasing demand.
Demand prices for sunflower oil in India remained at $1,400-1,410/t CIF Mumbai during the week, which, against the backdrop of declining prices for Russian oil, indicates a fairly significant supply on the world market and increased competition for buyers.
At the same time, demand prices for Ukrainian sunflower oil increased by $10/t to $1,325-1,330/t for delivery to Black Sea ports during the week, amid a reduction in supply, as more and more plants are shutting down due to a lack of raw materials and preparations for the rapeseed receiving season.
Active supplies of sunflower from Argentina to Bulgaria and Turkey have led to an increase in the supply of sunflower oil, making it increasingly difficult for Ukrainian exporters to sell expensive domestic oil, especially given the constant shelling of ports and the increasing risks of damage to factories and terminals.
As of May 25, 4.342 million hectares of sunflower have been sown in Ukraine, or 87% of the planned 5 million hectares. Cool weather with periodic rains is conducive to the development of crops, so farmers are quickly completing sowing and may even increase the area under sunflower against the backdrop of high prices.
RIYADH: Global fertilizer prices are projected to rise more than 30 percent in 2026 from 2025 levels, with urea prices expected to climb even faster as conflict-related shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz tighten global supply.
According to a report by Oxford Economics, prolonged constraints on traffic through the strategic waterway are worsening fertilizer affordability at a time when grain-to-fertilizer price ratios have fallen to historic lows, increasing pressure on farm margins and crop yields.
The grain-to-fertilizer price measure suggests that even though fertilizer prices have not yet surpassed previous peaks in nominal terms, their cost relative to crop revenues has become more burdensome than at any point in more than six decades, increasing the risk of reduced application rates and weaker yields.
“We have revised up our fertilizer price forecasts since the onset of the conflict and now expect fertilizer price increases to exceed 30 percent this year compared to last, with urea prices likely to rise at an even faster pace,” Kiran Ahmed, lead economist at Oxford Economics, said in the report.
Oxford Economics now expects traffic through the Strait to remain constrained through the second quarter of 2026, with shipping gradually recovering from July. However, port congestion and logistical bottlenecks could continue disrupting fertilizer flows through year-end, particularly if energy cargoes are prioritized.
The report warned that the impact would vary significantly across crops and regions, with rice, maize, and wheat facing the greatest exposure because of their heavy reliance on urea-based fertilizers. Rice is considered particularly vulnerable due to current planting cycles, while parts of Asia, along with Australia and Brazil, remain highly dependent on Middle Eastern fertilizer imports and inputs.
A key measure of affordability — the grains-to-urea price ratio — has dropped to its lowest level since records began in 1960, highlighting the growing burden on farmers even though nominal fertilizer prices remain below the peaks reached in 2022.
“There is reason to believe the hike in fertilizer prices could have a wider impact on global usage than suggested above,” the report said, noting that lower crop prices are making fertilizer purchases harder to justify for farmers already operating on tight margins.
Argentina’s 2025/26 sunflower crop made history by setting simultaneous records for planted area, average yield and total production. Data released by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange show a sharp expansion of the crop, consolidating the country’s position as one of the main global players in the market for sunflower oil and derivatives.
The historic performance was driven by an expansion in planted area, favorable weather conditions in strategic regions and above-average yields across much of the crop area.
According to the Argentine exchange, sunflower planted area reached 2.85 million hectares in the 2025/26 season, surpassing the previous record by 5.6%. That mark had been set in the 2007/08 crop year, when sunflower covered 2.7 million hectares.
Compared with the previous cycle, the expansion was even more pronounced, at 29.5%.
The main increase occurred in Argentina’s Northeast region, where planted area surged 224%. There was also significant growth in the provinces of Córdoba and north-central Santa Fe, reinforcing the oilseed’s expansion in the country.
The crop cycle was marked by good water availability in northern and western Argentina, a factor that supported plant development and high yield potential.
In parts of the country’s central-east and southeast, however, water deficits recorded between January and February led to greater variation in crop yields.
Even so, average results remained close to or slightly above historical standards, ensuring the crop’s strongest performance ever recorded in the country.
South Africa’s agricultural exports recorded a strong start to 2026, increasing by 11% in the first quarter compared to the same period last year, according to new data released by the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz).
Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo said the sector generated exports worth $3.7 billion (about R60 billion) during the first quarter, despite ongoing pressure from global trade uncertainty and domestic logistical challenges.
Products leading the export market included grapes, apples and pears, maize, wine, apricots, cherries, peaches, sugar, wool, fruit juices, nuts, dates, avocados, pineapples, guavas, mangos, and soybeans.
Sihlobo noted that while port efficiency has improved following previous disruptions, operational challenges remain at the Port of Cape Town. Delays at the port stretched from late 2025 into early 2026, coinciding with the peak export season for the table grape industry.
Sihlobo said that from a regional perspective, the African continent accounted for the lion’s share of agricultural exports in the first quarter of 2026, at 44% of the total value.
“The products leading the export list in the African continent were maize, apples and pears, soybean, sugar, fruit juices, soybean oil, sunflower oil, and wine, amongst others,” he said.
Sihlobo added that grapes, apricots, cherries, peaches, plums, wine, apples and pears, dates, figs, pineapples, avocados, guavas, mangos, fruit juices, sugar, nuts, and citrus juices were amongst the primary agricultural products South Africa exported to the European Union in the first quarter of 2026.
Bennie Van Zyl, TLU SA general manager, welcomed the positive export figures but warned that infrastructure problems continue to affect farmers.
“The reality is that in practice we still have problems with our railways, we still have some problems with our harbours, we still have infrastructure problems. And so there’s a lot of challenges that our farmers experience,” he said.